In 1964, Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardachev (1932-2019) published his article ” Transmitting information by extraterrestrial civilization »(Soviet astronomy) He tried to classify extraterrestrial civilizations according to the stages of technological evolution. Millions? It is better to identify them later. Thus the famous Kardachev scale was born. Claude Semai, a professor of particle physics at the University of Mons in Belgium, said: Nikolai Kardachev presents three consecutive levels as follows:
- Planetary Civilization (Type I): Use of all energy available on a planet (approximately 1.10)16 W-1.74.1016 W) for the earth.
- Star Civilization (Type II): Using all the energy of a star (about 1.10)26 W-3.86.1026 W) for the sun.
- Galactic Civilization (Type III): The total energy consumption of a galaxy (approximately 1.10)36 W-4.1036 W) for the Milky Way.
“We can even imagine a fourth level, where energy will come from the galaxy’s set,” the professor added. And why not … but where is humanity in this classification of civilization?
Type I Humanity: A Matter of the Century?
3%! That is, the rate of progress of human civilization was estimated by physicist Michio Kaku. ” The physics of interstellar travel: in a day, reach the stars At this rate, humanity is expected to reach level I within a century or two, second level within a few millennia, and level III in less than a million years! Recent research ” Predicting the Earth’s timeline for achieving Kardashian scale type 1 status »(Journal of Science and Technology, 01/11/2021) estimates an indicative increase in the production and use of terrestrial energy over time. The results indicate that humans will have a planetary civilization in 2347. However, new research points to an important piece of information forgotten by previous work: at each stage (planets, stars, galaxies), the corresponding medium must be effective. In other words, the absorption of certain energy sources must stop, and fast!
Jonathan H. Jiang, JPL Astrophysicist (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), The first author of this new article titled: Avoiding the Great Filter: Predicting the Timeline of Humanity to Reach Kardachev Type I Civilization »(The galaxy, 05/12/2022). The model he set up with his team is based on the formula K of the American astronomer Carl Sagan (1934-1996). This makes the amazing numbers more characteristic using a little more human power. Type I, II and III then KI, KII and KIII are written … and civilizations are found half way! “
In 2019, the value of Humanity K was 0.729, ”Jonathan H. Jiang reported. This is the world power supply of 1.93.1013 According to W IEA (International Energy Agency) In order to predict when Earth’s civilization would reach KI, scientists considered three main energy sources (fossil, nuclear, and renewable). Not forgetting the environmental constraints required to preserve the biosphere, and therefore the significant reduction in fossil fuels for nuclear and renewable energy. “It simply came to our notice then. As for nuclear power, it remains an essential support for renewables, “agreed Claude Semai. Jonathan H. Jiang’s team predicts that the goal will eventually be reached between 2333 and 2404 …
Extraterrestrial Civilization: Changes in Emergence
Of course, this end result can only vary depending on an estimate and future events. With the efficiency of thermonuclear fusion, for example … “This technological leap will inevitably speed up the process. On the other hand, an ecological collapse in 30 years will give it a brutal break, “said Claude Semai. Will we one day see human civilization across the planets, moons and asteroids of the solar system? For that, we have to survive until then … and that’s not the previous conclusion!
Stephen Hawking (1942-2018) himself was rather pessimistic, not hesitating to announce our last in the maximum 100 to 200 years. Jonathan H. Jiang realized that it is very important to estimate our chances of long-term survival. He also made it the primary target of a new paper published in September 2022.
In the case of actual survival, the paper will focus on the percentage of risk that humanity will soon die … “The main problem comes down to overcoming the great filter that is in front of us”, summarizes the astrophysicist. An important step that either leads to the end of humanity, or to the rise of the cosmos and its wonders. During this time, scientists had to create their simulations from parameters equivalent to the impact of civilization.
Among these Apocalypse riders we find nuclear war, epidemics, climate change, and artificial intelligence. In the latter case, Jonathan H. Jiang thinks that outside of a certain level of IQ, machines will stand up and do small human tasks. The article is yet to be finalized. But the simulations all seem to come together with the same result. Earth reached the end of civilization before it reached the KI level. The astrophysicist therefore began an application. “We have no choice. If we want to survive, we must change our way of life! “
A defensive civilization
Is it really desirable to become a planetary civilization, or KI? For Claude Semay, the answer is yes. “Technology has freed us from many limitations. “Most of us no longer have to work hard in the fields or dig deep in the mines.” And what about medicine, which today relies on a whole host of technological tools. Ambulance, MRI, pharmaceutical factories and other infrastructure. But the professor sees more. “It’s also about conserving terrestrial life in the long run. “At the moment, we are in more danger than the Allies, but that could change.”
In fact, only humanity is now able to realize the possibility of a major cosmic catastrophe on the entire planet. Only one could possibly be able to save it. What will happen, once the Great Filter that threatens it, humanity recognizes its duty to protect the earth and all the creatures that live there?