The hard part starts now for Nupes

Score very close between the Left Alliance and Together! At the end of the first round of assembly elections, the two camps began a week of conflict. This campaign between the two rounds can be difficult for the Left Alliance which a The vote reserve is theoretically smaller than the presidential party. Knops will have to succeed in uniting those who abstain in the hopes of preventing Emanuel Macron from becoming the elected deputy majority.

Which, of course, made the video an overnight sensationI shot her Since the left, thanks to its historic union treaty, should be the main opposition bloc of the Palais-Bourbon. La Nupes has created a real dynamic Which is clearly observed at the end of the first round compared to the results of the first round in 2017.

Melenchon can no longer play in the illusion of being in Matigan

But the second round could be more complicated than it seems for the left. In fact, at the end of the result, Emanuel Macron played a majority of 15 seats. Thus, political scientist Simon Persico told AFP, Nupes “Based on this it is more likely that there is no absolute majority than the opposite of the Ensemble.”

As a result, “Jean-Luc Melenchon can’t really play with the illusion of being in Matigan.”, RTL columnist Olivier Bost explains. Even if, for the most part, the intention to send a third president to Matigan is not abandoned, we note that Jean-Luc Melenchon did not utter the word “Matigan” or “Prime Minister” in his speech at the end of the first round. “The interested party tried to imagine him saying, ‘If you decide this, yes, within 10 days, the prices will be blocked, the minimum wage will be raised to 1,500 euros.” “Matiganon is not moving away, Matiganon is getting closer”However, Nupes recalled the leader in front of his headquarters in Paris, on Monday, June 13, at the LCI’s microphone.

Whether “Here it isThe strategy paid off, it simplified and clarified the issues. “, Observed by Simon Persico, Leftist and Professor of Science-Po Grenoble. But this strategy is also less credible for the second round. “Nupes must win 80% of their second round”, Explained the political scientist.

Together! Can recover voice from LR, when Nupes is already full

However, Nupes is one of the reasons this duo doesn’t start as many favorites Difficulties on reserve votes against the presidential majority. In fact, many of its candidates no longer have a reserve vote through the coalition game and voting system. United from the first round, left full, when together! Theoretically, the right voice can count And especially on the contribution of LR voters on the part of the first round.

Several leaders of the Left Alliance are still hoping, like the No. 2 Socialist Party Karin Narasiguin Those who claim it“There are some constituencies where he still has some votes reserved, for example where there were other leftist candidates in the first round.”Where PS dissidents appeared.

Invited to France 2 the day after the first round, Jean-Luc Melenchen answered a reporter’s question about Nupes’ margin for the second round: “This is the margin of those whom we mean. We have a survey that says 65% of French people do not want Macron to be in the majority. There are 25 million stops here so we can assume we have a chance to make sense. “He assured.

Voting reserves will be asked to abstain

The rebel leader therefore did not come last weekend to make a difference next weekend to those who are counting on abstinence. Effective, AOnly the reserve nuptials can benefit after uniting the leftist parties. Aurelie Truve, the Nupes candidate in the 9th constituency of Seine-Saint-Denis, who came in at the top (53.5%), also believes that “there is a huge vote reserve among the incumbents”. And especially “among the youth”.

In addition, four deputies elected in the first round went to the assembly the day after the results, hoping to “bring together all those who did not vote” in the first round. Does La Nupes have a voice reserve in the second round? “It’s a break and youth”, Daniel Obono noted that 52.49% of those registered to vote did not take part in the ballot.

On TwitterNupes candidate Sandrin Rousseau emphasized youth : “18/25 years old, let’s be honest, this is something for you that we do politics there and we want to change the world. So, we rely on you … “ He wrote.

On LCI’s microphone, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on his behalf, retrieved his request to young people: “Surge, this is the moment when you have the full power to change everything.” The same evening in France 2 he gave a layer of it: “I just want to tell young people that they should take care of their own business. Because it’s not like complaining about Parkoursup if they want to cancel it later if they don’t vote, insisting that Knops shared “concerns for the planet” with them.

Political scientist Simon Persico has confirmed this for his part “The turn of the ballot will be clearer, the campaign will intensify” which will thus “consolidate more.” And could potentially benefit the left.

La Nupes must lead the “unification drive.”

In conclusion, in the two-rounds, Nupes will have to find “a fine balance, a thin thread,” the political scientist explained to AFP. “On the one hand, mobilizing those who abstain, because its voters are the ones who have been most inactive in the presidential election; on the other hand Run a unified campaign Nupes par Ensemble’s demonization strategy to unbalance! Which “seeks to turn it into an anti-republican, Islamist-leftist, degrading camp.” At this point, it is necessary “Succeeded in attracting some right-wing voters against RN” For the sixty constituencies where the conflict between the Nupes and the extreme right will take place.

And it must be said that Emanuel Macron and his supporters do not make it easy for them. In support, together! Will be sorted. In fact, the president will not call for a vote for all Nupes candidates in the majority constituency where the Left Alliance will face Marine Le Pen’s party. “In this particular case, RN-Nupes, let’s be very clear: not a single voice for the national assembly,” official spokeswoman Olivia Gregoire told RTL the day after the first round. “But if we deal with a candidate (From Nupes) “Whoever does not respect the values ​​of our republic, who insults our police officers, who tells us not to support Ukraine, who wants to leave Europe, we are not asking him to vote.” Also specified Elizabeth Bourne moved to Calvados.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon finally reminded France 2 that Knoops was going on “Campaigning on the same theme as the presidential election. If you want to retire at the age of 60, vote for us. If you want to retire at the age of 65, vote for Macron. ” “It seems easy to me,” he added, adding that “the only job is to vote for us. Because Marine Le Pen has no chance of getting a majority, the LR is.”

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